Rough ride for NDP's Dix on Day One
suggests election result still uncertain

By John Twigg

The first official day of campaigning for B.C.'s election on May 14 proved that the outcome is not a foregone conclusion even though the New Democratic Party has a large lead.

A new poll from Ipsos Reid showed the NDP at 48 per cent of decided voters, with the governing B.C. Liberals trailing at 29 per cent, the B.C. Conservatives at 11 per cent and the Green Party at 9 per cent, which pattern was very close to recent findings by Angus Reid and EKOS polls (though Conservative and Green support probably is a bit higher than that).

With such a lead one would assume that all NDP leader Adrian Dix has to do is avoid making blunders, be cautious and let Liberal Premier Christy Clark continue to self-destruct, but the news events of Tuesday showed that is not true because the Liberals found a way to quickly put pressure on Dix.

Dix forced to fire a candidate
The Liberals dug up and revealed some embarrassing comments made several years ago in an online chat site by the NDP candidate in Kelowna-Mission, Dayleen Van Ryswyk, regarding aboriginals and francophones which forced Dix to remove Van Ryswyk as a candidate but he looked and sounded nervous and uncomfortable when he told reporters he had done so.

Dix has been saying for months that he expects a tough campaign and for the gaps to narrow by voting day and that is to be expected if only because the Liberals surely will launch a barrage of vicious attack ads against him and his party's checkered records in power, but now we see there could be more.

One wonders if the Liberals will have a one-a-day agenda of items like the Van Ryswyk quotes and if they do - especially if they attack Dix personally with new embarrassments - then the momentum could change radically.

Interest up in BCCP, Greens
Meanwhile the three opinion polls and other factors such as news coverage suggest that voter interest in the Conservative and Green parties is increasing, which suggests that the hordes of voters leaving the Liberals because of their tawdry record in power will not be going en masse to the NDP.

The key may be whether Clark and the Liberals can succeed in persuading enough people that a vote for the NDP would jeopardize the province's economy, which of course has become Clark's mantra in campaign speeches and media interviews. Their website is securetomorrow.ca, for example.

That's probably also behind Clark's frequent speech references to values, subtly reminding voters that she is (or tries to appear to be) a church-going Christian with conservative moralities while Dix and the New Democrats tend to be more non-Christian with alternative orientations and small-l liberal morals.

"B.C. is at a crossroads with two very different choices," Clark told reporters after visiting the Lieutenant-Governor Tuesday morning to officially trigger the election writ and that of course was yet another of Clark's many notorious deceits because there are four major parties and even more choices (notably numerous strong Independent candidates this time) but that IS what Clark needs to convey to stop the NDP from waltzing to an easy win.

Dix meanwhile began with a native-themed event at University of B.C.'s Museum of Anthropology in Clark's home riding and he announced that the NDP's full campaign platform will be revealed over the next eight days, with emphasis on the economy, skills training, environment, health and First Nations, but notably missing was a promise and coherent plan to grow the B.C. economy.

Instead Dix is focussing on reducing expectations and costing his meagre promises so as to not expand the province's troubling deficits and debt, which some could see as smart and prudent and others (like me) could see as overly cautious and lacking creativity (there are many things that could be done to grow the economy but Dix so far is not going near any of them, such as investing in direct job creation, enabling bulk water exports, starting a new made-in-B.C. currency, etc.).

Earlier today Clark lashed back at Dix's promise to freeze fares on B.C. Ferries while an audit is done, which I believe is a good idea because rising fares tend to limit commerce in general and an audit probably would pay dividends as well as hopefully open a door to new ideas such as special new crossing between (near to not at) Vancouver's Iona sewage outfall and Gabriola Island (with a small new bridge to the big island), and the passenger and truck-oriented ferries using sewage gases for fuel). Nonetheless Clark linked the fares freeze to her claims that an NDP government would drive up deficits and debt.

Will that kind of ammunition be enough for the Liberals to pull the NDP down far enough to enable say a minority Liberal win? They may, depending on whether they have more and better substance than that, and they may have it because a new scandal is building around NDP campaign manager Brian Topp, the former candidate for the leadership of the federal NDP who has since become a lobbyist based in Vancouver and now there are questions about his role in Dix's recent policy pronouncement of new tax measures to assist the B.C. film industry, apparently one of Topp's new clients. (Topp says he recused himself from party discussions on that issue but one suspects more media coverage will ensue nonetheless.)

So Day One is done and what we see is that the leading New Democrats are already on the defensive. What will Day Two bring? Stay tuned.

New role for new media
In fact the role of the media is a special factor in this campaign, especially with the recent addition of Global TV's BC-1 all-news channel and with the somewhat pro-Liberal stances of a few show hosts on audience-leading CKNW.

As Liberal cabinet minister Bill Bennett noted on Twitter, Dix looked like a deer in the headlights when grilled by CTV's Rob Brown on the Van Ryswyk matter, and when CKNW's Bill Good hosted an excellent panel of top candidates from all four parties he let the Liberal, Peter Fassbender, dominate and even bully the proceedings.

Though many criticisms can be fairly made against the Clark Liberals' record, notably their run-up of deficits and debt for dubious business schemes, Dix so far isn't making them, apparently because he's hoping his avoidance of going negative against them will prevent the Liberals from succeeding with attacks against his own record.

If we see 27 more days like that we could be in for some surprise results on May 14.

Meanwhile it will be interesting to watch not only the new TV news coverage but also how social media plays into it, and which party will have the best facebook and YouTube content, the most user-friendly website and especially the best word warriors on Twitter.

As they say in horse-racing, "They're off!"

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