The Daily Twigg May 14, 2013 1 pm
B.C. NDP likely to win solid majority
but result could become a landslide
By John Twigg
As British Columbia voters went to the polls this morning the outcome of a big NDP win in the provincial election was pretty much a foregone conclusion to party insiders and others such as media analysts familiar with the large amounts of near-unanimous polling data.
The last three polls with professional credibility showed the Adrian Dix New Democrats with 45 per cent of the popular vote or maybe a bit more, the B.C. Liberals under stopgap Premier Christy Clark maxed out 38 per cent or likely less, the B.C. Green Party solid at 9 per cent and possibly leading in two or three ridings in southern Vancouver Island, the B.C. Conservatives down at 6 per cent and falling and the Other category quite persistent at 3 per cent, reflecting that at least three Independent candidates and perhaps other non-mainstream candidates are quite competitive - which if all true will probably produce a comfortable majority for the NDP in the 85-seat Legislative Assembly as well as (hopefully) a multi-faceted Opposition.
In terms of seat totals it is harder to say because there are numerous ridings with anomalies and more than a few close contests, which can be deduced from the late-days campaign tours undertaken by Clark and especially Dix who added the novelty of a 12-hour final all-night plane and bus tour from 8 p.m. Monday to 8 a.m. today (Tuesday May 14 when polls opened), - but that said it looks like roughly 50 seats for the NDP, about 30 for the Liberals and maybe a handful for Greens and Others, which also was the consensus of callers to CKNW on Monday afternoon.
However my sense is that the result (after recounts in close contests) could become a landslide for the NDP including especially Premier Clark losing her Vancouver - Point Grey seat to the NDP's formidable David Eby, which is deduced from various subtle factors and especially from Eby's campaign winning the local sign war by about 6 to 1, with the virtual absence of Liberal lawn signs apparently indicating that many people who formerly supported the Liberals as the stop-the-NDP choice are no longer doing so, or if they are voting that way they are too embarrassed to admit it to their neighbours who may simply stay home and not vote.
It seems many other lesser Liberal incumbents will be going down too in swing ridings such as North Vancouver - Lonsdale and others in Burnaby and Surrey as B.C. citizens vote en masse against the devils who sneakily forced in the hated Harmonized Sales Tax and then botched its exit and who mishandled seemingly dozens but perhaps hundreds or even thousands of other policy and governance matters too, especially B.C. Hydro and B.C. Ferries, health and education and social services, the environment and the economy, taxpayer-paid political ads, quick-win ploys by partisan hacks paid for by taxpayers, and on and on, especially public-sector megaprojects tainted by over-runs and kickbacks.
The Liberal regime also became known for misrepresenting situations in numerous ways and places, especially the deficit and job numbers and even the supposed threats allegedly posed by an NDP regime. Their last grasp at a straw was to release an old internal policy paper from the NDP's governing Provincial Council and try to portray it as a dangerous secret plan but it was too little too late, especially when a party spokesman told the media it was merely a compilation of grass-roots wish-lists done before Dix had won the leadership contest more than two years ago to succeed former leader Carole James (who herself had been ousted by an internal revolt against her leadership style and weak politicking).
So the old anti-NDP scare tactics did not work this time, partly because the governing Liberals had morphed into something demonstrably even worse than the NDP and partly because Dix imposed a more disciplined and deliberately moderate policy regime onto the party's sometimes doctrinaire apparatus and then assembled an amazingly large, talented and united campaign team that literally and figuratively drove his bus home.
B.C. NDP likely to win solid majority
but result could become a landslide
By John Twigg
As British Columbia voters went to the polls this morning the outcome of a big NDP win in the provincial election was pretty much a foregone conclusion to party insiders and others such as media analysts familiar with the large amounts of near-unanimous polling data.
The last three polls with professional credibility showed the Adrian Dix New Democrats with 45 per cent of the popular vote or maybe a bit more, the B.C. Liberals under stopgap Premier Christy Clark maxed out 38 per cent or likely less, the B.C. Green Party solid at 9 per cent and possibly leading in two or three ridings in southern Vancouver Island, the B.C. Conservatives down at 6 per cent and falling and the Other category quite persistent at 3 per cent, reflecting that at least three Independent candidates and perhaps other non-mainstream candidates are quite competitive - which if all true will probably produce a comfortable majority for the NDP in the 85-seat Legislative Assembly as well as (hopefully) a multi-faceted Opposition.
In terms of seat totals it is harder to say because there are numerous ridings with anomalies and more than a few close contests, which can be deduced from the late-days campaign tours undertaken by Clark and especially Dix who added the novelty of a 12-hour final all-night plane and bus tour from 8 p.m. Monday to 8 a.m. today (Tuesday May 14 when polls opened), - but that said it looks like roughly 50 seats for the NDP, about 30 for the Liberals and maybe a handful for Greens and Others, which also was the consensus of callers to CKNW on Monday afternoon.
However my sense is that the result (after recounts in close contests) could become a landslide for the NDP including especially Premier Clark losing her Vancouver - Point Grey seat to the NDP's formidable David Eby, which is deduced from various subtle factors and especially from Eby's campaign winning the local sign war by about 6 to 1, with the virtual absence of Liberal lawn signs apparently indicating that many people who formerly supported the Liberals as the stop-the-NDP choice are no longer doing so, or if they are voting that way they are too embarrassed to admit it to their neighbours who may simply stay home and not vote.
It seems many other lesser Liberal incumbents will be going down too in swing ridings such as North Vancouver - Lonsdale and others in Burnaby and Surrey as B.C. citizens vote en masse against the devils who sneakily forced in the hated Harmonized Sales Tax and then botched its exit and who mishandled seemingly dozens but perhaps hundreds or even thousands of other policy and governance matters too, especially B.C. Hydro and B.C. Ferries, health and education and social services, the environment and the economy, taxpayer-paid political ads, quick-win ploys by partisan hacks paid for by taxpayers, and on and on, especially public-sector megaprojects tainted by over-runs and kickbacks.
The Liberal regime also became known for misrepresenting situations in numerous ways and places, especially the deficit and job numbers and even the supposed threats allegedly posed by an NDP regime. Their last grasp at a straw was to release an old internal policy paper from the NDP's governing Provincial Council and try to portray it as a dangerous secret plan but it was too little too late, especially when a party spokesman told the media it was merely a compilation of grass-roots wish-lists done before Dix had won the leadership contest more than two years ago to succeed former leader Carole James (who herself had been ousted by an internal revolt against her leadership style and weak politicking).
So the old anti-NDP scare tactics did not work this time, partly because the governing Liberals had morphed into something demonstrably even worse than the NDP and partly because Dix imposed a more disciplined and deliberately moderate policy regime onto the party's sometimes doctrinaire apparatus and then assembled an amazingly large, talented and united campaign team that literally and figuratively drove his bus home.
NDP could win 60 of 85 seats
Thus we also could see an election result something like 60 NDP, 15 Liberals, 4 Greens, 4 Independents and 2 Conservatives - which if it happened (yes that does include some wishful thinking on my part) would send B.C. politics into uncharted waters and maybe cause a brief tizzy in stock markets, bond-rating agencies, real estate brokerages and resource-company boardrooms, but in the long run (say three years) it could become a marvellous opportunity to remake British Columbia into a shining-light beacon of democracy and enlightened self-interest, of intellectual freedom (including religion!), equality of opportunity and human rights and a bastion of environmental excellence and economic self-sufficiency and stability in a world rapidly decaying towards war and social unrest.
As the Dix New Democrats said twice at the top of their final campaign news release they can grow the economy too and in fact that is probably the most hopeful aspect of all, that a Dix NDP regime can grab hold of the many strong horses in the provincial economy and get them pulling together with a clear purpose to a new and better direction, one practical step at a time.
Overall it was a brilliant, masterful and dogged campaign by the Dix-led New Democrats, certainly one of the best campaigns ever in the history of B.C. politics, while the Clark Liberals ran a rather morally cheap and shallow campaign, the Green campaign was good but only narrowly focussed regionally around leader Jane Sterk in Victoria - Beacon Hill and star candidate Andrew Weaver in Oak Bay - Gordon Head, and the B.C. Conservative Party never overcame its internal divisions and leader John Cummins made only a few ripples in the policy pond as its once-high hopes faded away.
Though Dix didn't win either of the leadership debates he also didn't lose them and nor did he blunder in the debates or elsewhere so he was able to end up winning the war by working overtime and assembling a team able to focus on what needed to be said and done to win.
NDP
news release May 14, 2013
10 Reasons Why BC Voters Will Vote for Change Today
10. Yes to Jobs and Economic Development: The NDP plan invests
in skills training to grow the economy and create jobs, and
takes concrete steps to support mining and natural gas, high-tech, forestry, film, agriculture, tourism and small business.
9. Skilled Workforce: We will invest $40 million in skills training and $100 million in a student grants program annually to grow the economy, create jobs and build a thriving middle class.
8. Honesty About Finances: Our fully-costed plan says exactly what we’ll do and how we’ll pay for it. There will be no income tax increases for 98% of British Columbians and there are no HST-like surprises.
7. Standing up for Ferry Riders: We will keep current ferry fares in place through March 31, 2015, while we clean up the mess the BC Liberals have made at BC Ferries.
6. A New More Positive Approach to Politics: We will ban corporate and union donations, eliminate taxpayer-funded partisan advertising and call a Public Inquiry into the BC Rail Scandal.
5. Helping Children: It’s time for a new government that cares about children, with real help like our new BC Family Bonus, reducing child care costs and opening more child care spaces.
4. Improving Classroom Learning: We will hire new specialist teachers and education assistants, to support special needs kids and to free up teachers so they can focus on giving every child the attention they need and deserve.
3. Better Health Care: Our plan will improve seniors’ care, mental health services for children and youth, and hospital care – especially in targeted rural communities
2. Protecting the Environment: We will take back control of pipeline decisions and protect our coasts from potentially catastrophic oil spills.
1. Change: British Columbians deserve better than more of the same. The HST broke your trust. So did the BC Rail and quick win scandals. It’s time for a change – change for the better.
These are 10 reasons British Columbians will vote for change today.
9. Skilled Workforce: We will invest $40 million in skills training and $100 million in a student grants program annually to grow the economy, create jobs and build a thriving middle class.
8. Honesty About Finances: Our fully-costed plan says exactly what we’ll do and how we’ll pay for it. There will be no income tax increases for 98% of British Columbians and there are no HST-like surprises.
7. Standing up for Ferry Riders: We will keep current ferry fares in place through March 31, 2015, while we clean up the mess the BC Liberals have made at BC Ferries.
6. A New More Positive Approach to Politics: We will ban corporate and union donations, eliminate taxpayer-funded partisan advertising and call a Public Inquiry into the BC Rail Scandal.
5. Helping Children: It’s time for a new government that cares about children, with real help like our new BC Family Bonus, reducing child care costs and opening more child care spaces.
4. Improving Classroom Learning: We will hire new specialist teachers and education assistants, to support special needs kids and to free up teachers so they can focus on giving every child the attention they need and deserve.
3. Better Health Care: Our plan will improve seniors’ care, mental health services for children and youth, and hospital care – especially in targeted rural communities
2. Protecting the Environment: We will take back control of pipeline decisions and protect our coasts from potentially catastrophic oil spills.
1. Change: British Columbians deserve better than more of the same. The HST broke your trust. So did the BC Rail and quick win scandals. It’s time for a change – change for the better.
These are 10 reasons British Columbians will vote for change today.
No comments:
Post a Comment