Many reasons Clark must go

The Daily Twigg  Vol. 1 No. 34  March 30, 2012

In this issue
1. MLA van Dongen's party jump said just the first of more
2. Robin Mathews shreds Clark govt's credibility on BC Rail
3. MLA Claire Trevena summarizes Legislature's busy week
4. Links to items of note for students of B.C. public affairs

Van Dongen's jump still reverberating
as White insists three more will follow

By John Twigg

I am working on another extensive polemic about why B.C. Premier Christy Clark should resign or be ousted sooner rather than later, but since it is going to take me perhaps a few days to write it I am instead today sending only a brief synopsis and then adding some excellent commentaries by other writers.

Meanwhile, my own analysis is that MLA John van Dongen's jump from the B.C. Liberal Party to the B.C. Conservative Party on Monday sent huge shock waves through B.C. politics that are still reverberating, especially his hiring of lawyer Roger McConchie to further probe the B.C. Rail scandal.

Indeed even as this little gist was being prepared there was more big news that Conservative backroomer Randy White is now predicting the BCCP will have four MLAs and thus official party status before the next election! That's according to a report today by Neil Corbett in the Abbotsford News.

“Not only do I think it may happen, I’m telling you it’s going to happen,” said White, a longtime former MP for Abbotsford for the Reform Party and then the federal Conservatives who has been busy helping his friend B.C. Conservative Party leader John Cummins rebuild the party brand in B.C., a brand which van Dongen by the way says needs to be broadened.

White claimed that the coalition of conservatives and Liberals that Premier Christy Clark says she is trying to hold together has already broken down, and poll numbers and van Dongen's jump suggest he is correct, as do the lukewarm comments from senior cabinet ministers Kevin Falcon, George Abbott and others undecided about running again in 2013.

Calls still mount for Clark's ouster

There are several reasons why van Dongen did that dramatic jump, including some personal ones such as grievances over how he was ousted from cabinet in 2009, but it's obvious his stated concerns about the B.C. Rail sale and her government's botch of the B.C. Place naming deal are adding weight to calls for Clark's immediate ouster, though really when you look at the full list of reasons to oust her one sees that van Dongen's list is only the tip of an iceberg.

There are in fact dozens of serious issues over which Clark bears lots of blame, such as the current government-manufactured dispute with teachers (which goes back to her years as education minister under former premier Gordon Campbell, and now a new dispute is also looming with the B.C. Government and Service Employees Union).

But even those serious problems are minor compared with such emerging allegations that despite her many denials Clark herself may have been involved in some wrongdoing in the tainted sale of B.C. Rail - which can be read about mainly on the Alex Tsakumis blog, namely that she may - may - have herself done some document leaking, or at least that she fraternized a lot with others who did such things as proffer bribes.

Furthermore, it gets worse, and more current, because it appears B.C. government lawyers (including a senior one who worked on Clark's leadership campaign and/or others now working under her indirect auspices) have been trying to maintain a coverup of certain aspects of the B.C. Rail scandal which has caused the Auditor General to have to go to court for access to some documents - a rare and perhaps unprecedented move for that office.

Attorney General Shirley Bond just told CKNW's Simi Sara that the documents in question are controlled by an unidentified third party and that she has instructed the government's lawyers to disclose everything else, but even there one wonders why she had to instruct them again to do so when the auditors have been trying for many months to get them.

So we'll have to wait to see how all that shakes out but it certainly destroys Clark's claim Tuesday that "there's nothing left to investigate" about her role in the B.C. Rail sale and meanwhile I'll try to explain how that fits into a compilation of other reasons why her leadership IS in question and should be moreso.

Clarification re who helped van Dongen's jump
And while I'm here, let me clarify for the record that Alex Tsakumis was not the go-between or marriage-broker between van Dongen and B.C. Conservative leader John Cummins, as I had speculated in a recent issue was a possibility based on some comments in Tsakumis's blog. While Tsakumis had been talking to both men from time to time, the person who suggested that van Dongen and Cummins actually meet to discuss van Dongen possibly crossing over was someone else so far unidentified (maybe Randy White as per above?).
   

Fresh meat for your Friday feeding:

Editor's Note: The following article by Robin Mathews, a veteran analyst of B.C. politics and public affairs, is published here as an opinion on matters of public interest and does not imply that I endorse and agree with each and every interpretation and analysis; readers are advised to draw their own conclusions and do their own fact-checking and lawyering if they wish to use it further.

Also, the article below it, by NDP MLA Claire Trevena, also is published as a matter of public interest and does not imply any endorsement of her by me or vice-versa; it is a document taken from the public domain which I as the editor believe provides some useful insights and perspectives on B.C. politics and public affairs.

Musical Chairs in Corrupt British Columbia.  Interesting Times.

By Robin Mathews

The phrase “like rats leaving a sinking ship” can’t help coming to mind with the switch of MLA John van Dongen from his role as seventeen-year Liberal loyalist to a new, shiny incarnation in the B.C. Conservative Party.

Mr. Van Dongen crossed the B.C. House this week, (March 26, 2012) joining a Party he didn’t represent to get elected.  He hasn’t signified that he’ll resign and run as a Conservative to validate his seat.  And he was welcomed by John Cummins, B.C. Conservative leader, happy to have him – in fact unelected – sitting in the legislature as a Conservative (the only).

One journalist reminded Cummins that his position when in federal politics was that “House Crossers” should resign and re-run.  Cummins, it seems, had forgotten….

British Columbia’s governing alliance – at least since the Second World War – has frequently been formed of all things Right of the CCF/NDP. (Keep the raging Socialists from getting their hands on political power!)

Except the B.C. NDP is, now, far from Socialist, let alone “raging”, as corporate lap-dog Adrian Dix makes clear on almost every public appearance.  He will take power in 2013 … and British Columbians will hardly notice the change.

Embattled Boadicea, Liberal premier Christy Clark, said van Dongen’s move will only help the NDP.  True.  But not for any reasons she wants to offer.  Mainstream Media voices say there will be no more defections.  We’ll see.  Even van Dongen’s leaving lets the NDP say that any rotten apple that falls from the Liberal tree is grabbed up and hugged to John Cummins' bosom.  The more they fall and are hugged into the Conservative Party, the more the NDP can say “Tweedledum and Tweedledee.  Try to tell them apart.”

If there is one thing British Columbians are growing certain of, it’s that the Liberal Caucus, one and all, have to go.  Cummins and Co. know that.  But if the leaving Conservatives-playing-Liberal try to tuck themselves into the John Cummins creation, that Party will lose, too.  Tough choices for John Cummins.  Where do the hard rock Conservatives who are in the Gordon Campbell/Christy Clark party go…?  Today Kevin Falcon [present Liberal finance minister and a natural for the Conservative Party] says he is thinking of stepping aside in 2013, the dailies tell us.

The Party that wants to hold power for 25 years will begin with criminal investigations into BC Rail, BC Hydro, BC Ferries, Public Private Partnership Infrastructure deals, River Energy contracts … to start.  That will reveal the heaving, corrupt, steamy stew that is B.C. A Party that sets about – really – to clean will stay and stay in power. 

But sell-out, greed, fear, and love of power will probably prevent that from happening.

Which brings us back to John van Dongen.  He has crossed the House in search of purity.  A known Fraser Valley Christian, he knows his New Testament (Matthew 7:7, Luke 11:9). 

“Seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you.”

The Liberal leader, Christy Clark, he has said – in and out of the legislature – has not faced the need for change, has not been a good administrator, has not been honest about the BC Rail Scandal, has not been transparent about the outrageous payment of “$6 million in legal fees [paid to Defence], completely contrary to government policy”.  Those are legal costs paid for convicted Dave Basi and Bob Virk by government, with cabinet approval, to slam shut the BC Rail trial and – many believe – save the skins of (a) major cabinet operatives, (b) private corporate dealers in on the scam (c) the BC Liberal government and Party.

Van Dongen does not, of course, mention the $10.7 million paid to the Special (Crown) Prosecutor whose questionable appointment invalidates ALL the Crown’s work in the Basi, Virk, and Basi matter.  No one, so far, will touch that burning brand.

So deeply is John van Dongen moved by the spirit of purity, so beset is his conscience by moral perturbation that he has hired North Vancouver lawyer Roger McConchie to review BC Rail matters involving Basi, Virk, and Basi and then to advise him.

That might be called “Gilbert and Sullivan in Hell”.

Regulars in the nearly four year Basi, Virk, and Basi pre-trial/trial grew familiar with Roger McConchie.  He appeared whenever the Globe and Mail (and like others) wanted to contest publication bans and other kinds of restrictions on information.  He spoke always for what we name “the Mainstream Press and Media”.  I have no remembrance of him speaking meaningfully and directly on behalf of British Columbians, the public, you and me … insisting on our right to see all documents on public record.  I may be wrong.

At the end of the trial, as has been pointed out, Mr. McConchie reviewed ‘thousands’ of Prosecution documents with the Globe and Mail in order to get release of the material “to the public”.  Why the release was set up … and made … is hotly contested.  It was not a release of all materials, by any means. And it was not a release to the public.

Some say, and I believe them, that the release “to the public” was a complete sham, a piece of theatre, “smoke and mirrors”.  It was, in fact, a release of selected material to a chosen few, dependable, insider, tamed Mainstream journalists.

It was made, I believe, to smear the two convicted men (who seemed to be getting off very, very lightly), Dave Basi and Bob Virk.  And it was made, I believe, to throw up a smokescreen in front of the major wrongdoers in cabinet and in corporate boardrooms.

Those are strong allegations.  They have a history.  Observe:

Out of the corrupt fog called "the administration of justice" in British Columbia, the B.C. Supreme Court has set up (and maintains) a completely (in my judgement) fraudulent process.  It is called "the journalist accreditation process".

Under the eye of a Supreme Court judge a committee of Mainstream journalists ”serves” the Court, to vet anyone wanting journalist status in B.C. Supreme court trials.  “Approved journalists” may take recorders into the court and may examine all materials placed “on public record”.

(1)  All Canadians should be able to do both things in our “democratic”, “Open Court” system.  They are denied their citizenship by corrupt courts, as I see it.

(2)  The Mainstream Media committee members are servants of the Court and so contaminated. They both work for the Court and are – as representatives of “a free press and media” - supposed to criticize the Court and judges freely when they deem such action necessary.  They live in conflict of interest.

In the nearly four years I attended the Basi, Virk, and Basi process, not one Mainstream Press and Media journalist EVER criticized a judge, though occasions inviting legitimate criticism were frequent.

(3)  The fraudulent process permits the Mainstream Journalist committee to pick off their rivals.  For nearly three years I reported things the Mainstream Press and Media journalists wouldn’t touch or were ordered by their bosses not to touch.  When I applied (because I was forced to do so) for “accreditation” as a journalist after three years of steady reporting of the pre-trial, I was denied accreditation by journalists I had been showing up for three years as failing to do their job.

(4)  My application to Associate Chief Justice Anne MacKenzie (who was handling the case) was ignored.  Instead, a court officer informed me I could – in fact – appeal a judgement made by court non-persons (journalists) acting on behalf of the court.  I could apply, pay money, go through what is, in fact, an appeal process – without any certainty of being approved. I refused to have anything to do with such galloping Banana Republic fraud.

(5)  The effect of the process is that the relation of court, judges, and Mainstream Press and Media is too close. One may feel – watching sensitive events in court – that each is “looking after” the other.

To my knowledge, Roger McConchie, the Law Society of B.C., the Canadian Bar Association, as well as the Canadian Judicial Council all are completely content with that “system”.  It is plainly an affront to democratic freedom and the rule of law. Not one of them has spoken out publicly against it.

John van Dongen is employing Roger McConchie to advise him on matters involving the Basi, Virk, and Basi case, the payment by government of their Defence costs, and – who knows? – the possibility of involvement by premier Christy Clark in the shady and nefarious dealings that led to the accusations against the three accused.  Defence counsel hinted at such a possibility in pre-trial hearings years ago.

Such is the passion for virtuous government felt by former cabinet minister and present MLA John van Dongen that he has hired Roger McConchie at his own expense!

Let us look back at John van Dongen’s seventeen years of loyalty to the B.C. Liberal Party.

He was there when co-chair and fund-raiser David McLean worked on Gordon Campbell’s 1996 campaign – and was major fund-raiser later, it is said.  That is the David McLean who was president of CNR when BC Rail was “delivered” to CN in 2003-04.  Mr. van Dongen didn’t seem, then, to have a moral qualm.

Mr. van Dongen was in cabinet while BC Hydro was being ripped apart.  The Auditor General of B.C. hasn’t approved B.C. Hydro accounting practices for ten years!  Mr. van Dongen – to my knowledge – never has asked a question on the matter.

He was there when a relation of Gordon Campbell was embroiled in a scandal in the ministry of Children and Families, was removed, was covered for, was whisked to trial in Prince George on a completely different charge – while something like $400,000.00 was “written off” by the ministry.  Mr. van Dongen said nothing … asked (as far as I know) no questions of anyone.

He was there when BC Ferries was looted as a cash cow, transformed, and stripped of any responsibility to British Columbians.  He was there when David Hahn, U.S.-sourced BC Ferries president, was revealed to have an annual salary of one million dollars a year!  Not a word from Mr. van Dongen that I remember.

Mr. van Dongen was there in cabinet when – it is alleged – Gordon Campbell and his team went consciously to work to dessicate BC Rail, to destroy its profitability, and to make it look, falsely, a losing operation.  He was in cabinet when those actions – which I believe constitute criminal breach of trust – were being carried out.

Mr. van Dongen didn’t – it seems – suffer even a slight moral twinge.

He was in cabinet in the first years of staggering revelations and allegations of high-level corruption made by Defence counsel in the Basi, Virk, and Basi BC Rail Scandal pre-trial hearings.  He was an MLA for the full trial and its outrageous conclusion, a conclusion blessed by the questionably appointed Special Prosecutor and the sitting judge, Associate Chief Justice Anne MacKenzie.

Through all those years and those highly dubious events … and more … John van Dongen remained silent.  Silent.

Silent.

Now he is no longer silent.  Now he wants to find answers.  Now?  Why?  The $6 million paid to Defence counsel of Dave Basi and Bob Virk was approved of by the Gordon Campbell cabinet.  Does Mr. van Dongen want to pull Gordon Campbell down, now, from his eminence as Canadian High Commissioner in London?  After nearly two decades of van Dongen faithful, silent loyalty?

Does Mr. van Dongen want to find ways to implicate Christy Clark in the lower levels of alleged BC Rail Scandal bribery, BC Rail information leaking, and related actions?  If he could do so, that would wipe the B.C. Liberals in 2013 … for certain.

We are in murky depths here.  Much more is happening than meets the eye.

Conservative voices in British Columbia are making themselves heard, are revealing that beneath their Liberal hides Conservative hearts are beating, and that they despise Liberal premier Christy Clark … that they want to get her.

Like gays ‘in the closet’ for twenty years, these Conservatives want to go on a huge Conservative PRIDE parade.  They are mad, too.  Christy is in the embrace of Stephen Harper – their ideal Conservative. They want to be in his embrace.  They want to be able to reveal their real selves, their real neo-liberal, (neo-fascist?), public servant-hating, robocalling selves, standing in Stephen Harper’s shadow. Christy has taken Stephen’s aides and agents into her circle.  Christy, the dumb Liberal, (they think) is playing Conservative, is schmoozing (in photo ops) with Stephen Harper. Liberal Gordon Campbell shouldn’t be Canadian High Commissioner to the Court of St. James!  A Conservative should be in that post!

How can B.C. Conservatives break the unholy alliance between the Christy Clark Liberals and the Stephen Harper Conservatives?  How can they get a British Columbia which is more Conservative than the ruling party in the House of Commons? By making Christy Clark too hot for Stephen Harper to handle.  Even, perhaps, by making Gordon Campbell too hot to keep in London.

These are dark and murky depths, but they are the place where real struggles for power go on.  John van Dongen has just announced that the Liberal/Conservative struggle for power on the Right has begun in British Columbia.  All the media and pundit talk about John van Dongen’s virtuous desire for a cleansed political landscape is wonderful, refreshing, heady, Springtime intoxication.  He may really want a cleansed political landscape … after all power on it is possessed by Stephen Harper-style British Columbia Conservatives.

We – who are not B.C. Conservatives – can only watch (and cover our backs). The Chinese curse is upon us: we live in interesting times.

Other columns by Robin Mathews can be found here:
http://www.vivelecanada.ca/editorials/columnists/9-robin-mathews


MLA Claire Trevena reviews
busy week in B.C. Legislature

By Claire Trevena
NDP MLA - North Island

Despite the political drama playing out in the corridors of the Legislature - the departure from the Liberal Party of a former cabinet minister and questions over who among the BC Liberals will stay on to fight the next election - the work of committees and questioning continued through the week.

One of the reasons that John van Dongen said he was leaving the Liberal caucus was because of the still unanswered questions about BC Rail and taxpayers paying the legal costs for Basi and Virk. We raised this scandal yet again in question period: but the government continued to stonewall. We also raised again questions about the multi-million dollar overspends at BC Place, and the cavalier rejection of the Telus sponsorship deal.

However, we urged the government to put politics aside and show support for the workers who recently lost their jobs at Aveos, the company that operated maintenance services for Air Canada.  On Thursday the Legislature unanimously voted in support of such a move.

We were not so lucky when we asked the Minister of Jobs to act to protect the hundreds of retirees from Catalyst pulp mills whose pensions could be at risk because of the company’s insolvency. He refused to take any responsibility. Likewise we asked ministers again about the impact of raw log exports on mills and local economies, only to have the question sloughed off.

I was able to talk about the sometimes difficult balance between protecting the environment and encouraging employment in the mining sector. I spoke about the situation for both Myra Falls, in Strathcona Provincial Park, and Quinsam Coal with the close oversight it receives for impacts on the watershed.

The government’s initiative to download more work on municipalities, through the Local Government Auditor General office, has now become law. We spent several days examining the bill closely and presented a number of amendments to it to try to make it more palatable but they were not accepted.

We also examined the Advanced Education Statutes Amendment Act. This is the bill which takes away the right of elected executive members of faculty associations to be on the boards of governors of universities and colleges. This is an unnecessary bill, an arbitrary attack on both unions and on the good governance of post-secondary education.

We have been drawing attention to problems with the government’s testing of senior drivers through the DriveAble programme. We asked a number of questions about the test’s validity as well as problems in accessing it, both because of the distance to test centres and the cost. I will be holding two DriveAble meetings next month (on April 27^th) to talk to seniors in the North Island about problems they have faced or are facing.

We also asked the Minister of Transportation how he can allow yet another increase in ferry fares. The rates are due to go up on April 1^st by more than 4%, despite the Ferry Commissioner’s report acknowledging the fact that ferry dependent communities find it impossible to continue to bear such increases.

As the critic for Children and Families I asked the Attorney General  about an horrific failure in the justice system which allowed a case of alleged child sexual abuse to be stayed. What I was hoping to hear was that the government would put priority on cases in the courts system - whether it be criminal or child protection - to protect children.

I also had the opportunity to ask the Minister of Agriculture if there was any specific government assistance to communities who want to expand their agricultural base. Campbell  River is already looking at ways to do this and I hear from other communities in the constituency that they are also considering it.

And I had the opportunity to tell the Legislature about the walk that  Phoenix student, Janine Annett, is making from Port Hardy to Victoria over the coming month.  She’s raising awareness about child poverty - here and abroad - and to encourage youth empowerment.

I’ll be at the start of Janine’s walk in Port Hardy on Tuesday morning. Before that I will have been to Prince George as part of the Opposition Forest Working Group tour, and will be at the No Pipeline Rally in Comox on Saturday at the public hearings on Enbridge. 

Editor's Note: The B.C. Legislature recessed on Thursday for what will be a two-week break and will resume on April 16, only days before the Port Moody and Chilliwack byelections on April 19.


Links of interest for students of B.C. politics and public affairs

Link to Randy White interview in the Abbotsford News re more party-jumpers coming
http://www.abbynews.com/news/145191995.html

Link to Mark Hume piece on Auditor General fighting to get BC Rail documents
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politics/auditor-general-battles-bc-for-access-to-documents-in-corruption-case/article2384998/

Link to Alex Tsakumis's analysis and contexts of legal fights over BC Rail scandal documents
http://alexgtsakumis.com/2012/03/29/court-documents-reveal-that-the-bc-government-is-withholding-basi-virk-documents-putting-the-auditor-generals-review-in-jeopardy-will-shirely-bond-do-the-honourable-thing-and-resign/

Link to Geoff Plant defending government's handling of Basi-Virk settlement (it still looks like a coverup IMO)
http://theplantrant.blogspot.ca/2012/03/basi-virk-open-letter-to-john-van.html

Link to Premier Clark's video interview about her first year in office (have a barf bag handy?):
http://christyclarkmlabc.ca/news/constituency-report-march-18-2012/

Link to Briony Penn on Robocalls and the petrostate politics
http://focusonline.ca/?q=node/355

Link to a story about a huge new export sale of B.C. water to Japan which proves the huge potential value of this industry
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/03/24/bc-bottled-water-japan.html

BC Rail scandal behind van Dongen's jump

The Daily Twigg  Vol.1 No. 33  March 28, 2012

B.C. Politics Trendwatch
In this issue:
1. The moves behind van Dongen's jump
2. New polls add to Premier Clark's woes
3. MLA Bob Simpson views feeding frenzy

Revolt against Basi-Virk payoffs
was behind van Dongen's jump

By John Twigg

The sometimes frantic pace of B.C. politics seemed to take a bit of a breather yesterday as if everyone wanted to stand back and digest the earthquake from the day before when longtime B.C. Liberal MLA John van Dongen not only left that party but also instantly became the first sitting member of the upstart B.C. Conservative Party.

While lots of people had known for quite a while that van Dongen (Abbotsford-South) was amongst the most aggrieved Liberal backbenchers on the verge of leaving the Liberals in protest of Premier Christy Clark's evident mismanagement of numerous issues, very few if any other MLAs or any pundits knew he would take a second step into the Conservatives' ranks too. (I saw one suggestion that Independent MLA Vick Huntington knew it was coming, but no others.)

Clark sees Liberals as the only free-enterprise choice

Several versions of what had happened eked and leaked out about exactly what took place, including various versions from van Dongen, Conservative leader John Cummins, blogger Alex Tsakumis and other participants, and there were even more versions about what it all will mean and lead to going forward, and of course there was lots of misleading spin from Clark when she finally faced the media shortly after the noon newscasts yesterday to the effect that in her mind she's determined to keep the B.C. Liberal Party as the only practical way to preserve a free-enterprise coalition that can prevent the New Democratic Party from winning power in the 2013 provincial election (which sounds to me like a line coached into her by strategist Patrick Kinsella).

"The only thing that John van Dongen accomplished yesterday was making it a little easier for the NDP to get elected in British Columbia," Clark said, typically understating the gravity of her situation.

The gist of van Dongen's motives which I gathered from monitoring a lot of reports and making a few calls was that he had been quite upset about several issues going back a long time, especially when he stepped aside as Solicitor General over several speeding tickets he incurred in the run-up to the 2009 election and then afterwards being passed over for reinstatement by first former premier Gordon Campbell (whose drunk-driving conviction had not prevented him from remaining a minister) and then Clark, whose perhaps-more-than-peripheral involvement in the B.C. Rail scandals (yes, plural is cct) and other brushes with notoriety hadn't prevented her from winning the party leadership and succeeding Campbell in March 2011.

It was around then that van Dongen seemed to become fixated with several aspects of wrongdoing in and around the BC Rail corruption trial, especially with the now and still notorious settlement with former aides David Basi and Bob Virk, in which they admitted to corrupt practises in the bidding process for the sale of BC Rail but still got to keep their houses, avoid jail time and have their $6-million legal fees paid by the government even though it was against government policy to make such payments to guilty parties, and ostensibly that was because (in a version given again yesterday by Justice Minister Shirley Bond in Question Period) that the deputy minister to the Attorney General and the deputy minister of Finance decided upon the advice of officials - and unbeknownst to any politicians - that such a settlement would be in the public interest even though the timing made it look like a blatant partisan coverup of a scandal because it avoided a series of cabinet ministers beginning to testify about just what had gone on and maybe gone wrong in the troubled sale of BC Rail.

The whole deal still stinks, such as Campbell hiding the fact that the deal with Canadian National Railway, a company chaired by one of his main financial backers and lobbied for by his longtime strategy adviser Kinsella (who furthermore was working for three sides at once in the deal!), had several sweetheart provisions in it such as arguably a too-low price and certainly a too-long term of 990 years - making a supposed lease into a de facto sale - but especially galling to van Dongen was the sweetheart payoff to two junior Indo-Canadian guys to take the fall for everyone and do so on the taxpayers' tab.

Van Dongen planned showdown in caucus

Around then van Dongen began leading a revolt inside the Liberal caucus against Campbell, the existence of which was unknown to me until the last day or two, and apparently it wasn't known much by others either because when Campbell suddenly announced his resignation Nov. 3, 2010 a whole bunch of other issues and factors were blamed, especially the backlash against the Harmonized Sales Tax [which Campbell had brought in to try to hide the fact that he had lied about the size of the government's deficit in the 2009 election campaign] but also Campbell's abysmal plunge in opinion polls [he became the most unpopular first minister in the history of North American polling], and his audacious massive restructuring of the resource ministries to shortcut their project approval processes which furthermore had been planned in so much secrecy by Campbell and two deputy ministers that even the ministers involved were surprised by it and then there was a sudden shuffling of ministers too (which again omitted van Dongen).

But what the news of the day did not reveal was that van Dongen was livid at the deal given to Basi and Virk, which happened on Oct. 18, 2010, and which van Dongen was going to mount a showdown about in a caucus meeting just before the B.C. Liberal Party's then imminent convention in Penticton. But it never happened because Campbell announced his resignation shortly beforehand, albeit he clung to office until mid-March 2011, which was just long enough to vault him one spot into fourth place on the all-time longevity list of B.C. Premiers.

So van Dongen patiently waited until the leadership contest was determined, and even though he was openly disappointed and troubled by the selection of Clark (which apparently involved some questionable bulk signups of Indo-Canadians) he patiently gave her a year to act upon his concerns about the B.C. Rail process, which by then apparently included some comments about it that Clark had allegedly made during the leadership contest which van Dongen now says were inconsistent. And when Clark's one-year anniversary arrived and nothing had been done about it he issued an ultimatum and when it apparently was not acted upon he took the advice of a third party - possibly Tsakumis, based on hints dropped in his blog - who arranged a meeting with Cummins, and a week or so later the jump was made in public.

Van Dongen and Cummins of course had known each other somewhat for many years, both being from the Fraser Valley and both having been involved in the fishing industry (van Dongen was the provincial minister when Cummins was an activist Reform-Alliance MP and active fisher) but they apparently had not talked policy and strategy about such a move beforehand (which is plausible given the shock it caused).

When they did meet they quickly found they had lots of mutual interests, and lots of policy agreements, namely small-c fiscal conservatism, safe streets and a desire to give B.C. voters a viable free-enterprise alternative to both the corrupt Liberals and the socialist New Democrats. And so a simple deal was done and van Dongen would henceforth sit in the House as the revived party's first MLA, though technically he is an Independent without party status in the House (because party status requires four or more MLAs) plus he and his status would be enormously helpful in the Chilliwack byelection on April 19 (where the Conservatives have a good candidate in criminologist/pundit John Martin).

Several and various Liberal Party players tried to besmirch van Dongen's character, noting he has been in an evolving relationship for four years with his constituency assistant Sherri Wacker with whom he is engaged while a divorce is pending from his first wife, and suggestions he had become mentally unstable, but the vast majority of people in his riding supported the move, and Cummins explained away the impracticality of his party's previous policy of requiring party jumpers to first resign and then win a byelection because a possible six-month delay and the looming election made that silly, not to mention that there was no great ideological reversal involved.

Van Dongen retains lawyer McConchie

Van Dongen did cite several other issues of concern that influenced his decision, including that the last straw was the Clark cabinet's ever-changing explanations of what exactly had gone awry in the B.C. Place naming rights deal, and Clark's bungling management style in general, but the original thorn was the special payoffs to Basi and Virk and other related matters - an item so irritating to him that he has personally retained prominent lawyer Roger McConchie to pursue details about it - an activity also being pursued by the Auditor General through the courts, though Minister Bond claimed the government has been cooperating on providing documents so the much-called-for public inquiry is not necessary, she and Clark claim.

"We'll be working on a number of fronts to get to the bottom of the legal fees deal and other specific issues that I think are relevant to the people of British Columbia," he was quoted as saying by the Vancouver Sun, in particular statements Clark made to the media in January and February of 2011, and what her relationships were with lobbyist Erik Bornmann and others involved in the matter.

"There are no unanswered questions about BC Rail," Clark (again wearing a blue blouse) told the press gallery pack on Tuesday, but that of course is another gross misrepresentation, especially when Tsakumis has published allegations that RCMP had been investigating her role in the affair and which may even have included her leaking some of the documents in question when she was Campbell's deputy premier.

Anyway, the facts are that van Dongen won his seat last time with 59% of the vote, his fourth consecutive win, and almost everyone who has worked with him has been impressed by his dedication and integrity, including as a successful dairy farmer, a director at Dairyland, a church elder and as an MLA, so while the Liberals and even some New Democrats might like to tear him apart it won't be easy to do, and he does plan to seek re-election next year.

"I'm comfortable I made the right decision," he said. "I put my views out there and now I'm moving forward." And yesterday that meant moving files into his new office, doing more media and not participating in recorded votes and not seeking a spot in Question Period - but those will come soon enough, and NDP House Leader John Horgan quickly indicated he will give consideration to van Dongen's requests for time in the same way he now does for Independent MLAs Huntington and Bob Simpson.

So suddenly and once again there is a whole new paradigm in B.C. politics and what was previously a mainly two-way race is now suddenly a real three-way contest whether Premier Clark likes it or not, and clearly she does not.


New polls add to Premier Clark's woes

By John Twigg

As if B.C. Premier Christy Clark didn't have enough problems already, her struggles to keep her regime together were compounded Tuesday by two new opinion polls casting doubt on her waning clout.

A new poll from Vancouver-based Mustel Group, which hadn't published anything for quite a while, came out confirming that the New Democrats were solidly in the lead with 42% of the decided popular vote while the B.C. Liberals were lagging at 34%, the B.C. Conservatives were more than a flash in the pan at 17% and the Greens were a bit weak at only 6%. The undecideds were at 17%, perhaps a bit low for a mid-term snapshot.

That result was widely reported in the mainstream media even though it was with a relatively small sample of only 518 respondents with a margin of error of 4.3% 95% of the time, which is a bit high, and it was done by direct phone calls over a long period (March 5 to 19), suggesting it may have been a bit stale.

Still it came with a nice-looking graph ( http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20120327.pdf ), its methodology was consistent, its interpretations were plausible and its findings generally fit well with what other larger polls have found recently.

The mainstream media also made much of an Angus Reid national poll of provinces' satisfactions with their leaders, in which Clark's again fell sharply to only 33% approval while her disapproval jumped 52% which the pollster noted made her the second most unpopular Premier in Canada, behind only Quebec's Jean Charest.

Clark tried to minimize the damage by claiming "Poll numbers sometimes are vastly different" but that was just another one of her typical misrepresentations because lately and historically most polls have been finding similar trends, especially if they are compared to previous results from the same pollster but less so when compared to each other.

B.C. NDP leader Adrian Dix meanwhile had an approval of 47% and a disapproval of only 37% which are consistent with other polls' findings that he has recently passed Clark in B.C.'s ready-to-govern or best-to-be-Premier contest, and that furthermore was helpful timing because it tending to help blunt news stories about Dix recently having been caught using SkyTrain without a ticket, which he claims he had lost.

Polling critic Bernard von Schulman quickly published an analysis of the new data and other recent polls ( http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/2012/03/polls-of-bc-political-landscape.html ) and concluded there is agreement that the New Democrats are over 40% but there is disagreement over whether the Liberals and Conservatives are more or less tied or whether the Liberals still have a large lead over the Conservatives, with some of the differences possibly due to different methodologies. (And I would add that some pollsters seem to favour Liberals more than Tories.)

My own view is that the relatively large Forum polls and the relatively insightful Angus Reid polls are both quite accurate, namely with the NDP in a large lead and the Liberals and Conservatives now more or less tied, but it is more or less academic because the byelections on April 19 will provide new benchmarks and then the countdown to the May 14, 2013 provincial election could make the outcome unpredictable, especially if Clark has some success with her apparent strategy which is to deliver a whole lot of job creation in the months and weeks before the vote.

It also should be noted that while critics such as myself and Tsakumis as well as Vaughn Palmer and Mike Smyth have often been harshly critical of Clark's numerous mistakes, it remains a fact that she has still done a few good things too, such as launching a much-needed review of the dysfunctional justice system (albeit with some questions about time and process), a review of business taxes and has been making a serious push to get developments happening, such as the recent approval of the contentious Jumbo Glacier project near Invermere.

I won't predict that Clark will still be Premier by the time the 2013 election rolls around, especially because Finance Minister Kevin Falcon probably would do a better job of managing the government, but I will predict that the B.C. Liberals will still have a full slate of candidates and they'll still win lots of their stronghold seats.

On the other hand the Georgia Straight had this interesting comment from University of the Fraser Valley political scientist Hamish Telford: “I think the problem here is that a feeling has started to set in with the voters that the B.C. Liberal Party has really lost its moral authority, its moral legitimacy to govern. When that sentiment seeps into the electorate, it’s very, very difficult to turn it around.”

While some pollsters such as Forum have been predicting an NDP landslide based on recent results, the reality is that the provincial election will not be held tomorrow and in fact will be held still more than a year from now. Which in B.C.'s volatile politics can be an eternity.


Independent MLA views political feeding frenzy

By Bob Simpson
Indep. MLA - Cariboo North 

The feeding frenzy in the hallways of the BC Legislature continued Tuesday as the media scrummed any Liberal MLA who was silly enough to pause and face the cameras and give a reaction to the defection of one of their colleagues to the BC Conservatives.
In part, this was a result of the BC NDP using the Member from Abbotsford South as a poster child for a large portion of Question Period today. If some of the BC Liberals had laser vision, John van Dongen would have been burnt to a crisp — and I’d likely have been collateral damage as we now sit beside each other!
A defection from any party’s Caucus will dominate the news cycle for at least 24-48 hours, and the defector will get more than his or her 15 minutes of fame. When I was ejected from the BC NDP Caucus I got more press coverage and TV news exposure in 24 hours than I had accumulated over my political career up to that time; despite having made every effort to raise substantive public policy questions during the five years leading up to that event.
Public policy isn’t “sexy”; political scandal is. So, the latter gets major coverage. Unfortunately, news coverage of political scandal and intrigue simply adds to the cynicism that voters have towards politics and politicians in general. In the case of a defection or ejection from a Party Caucus, the principles that drove the actions of the MLA get lost in the political firestorm that results.
I hear echoes of my concerns about Caucus discipline and the cone of silence that covers internal Caucus debate in what John Van Dongen is now saying. He’s decided to raise his concerns publicly because he was unsuccessful getting them addressed privately, within the confines of a political party he’s served since 1995 and under whose banner he won 5 elections. John was a Cabinet Minister and served as BC’s “top cop” — if he has questions about the Basi Virk deal, then it suggests that something truly stinks about what the BC Liberals did to squash the public trial investigating the sale of BC Rail.
But, just as importantly, do party MLAs owe more to their political party than they do to the public? How long should MLAs be forced to work their internal party systems before they can choose to put the public interest ahead of their party interests and reveal their concerns publicly, without fear of being labelled a traitor?
The media firestorm surrounding defections and ejections from party caucuses never gets past the sensationalism of the actual event. After the 24-48 news cycle the media moves on, without ever substantively exploring the unhealthy and undemocratic dynamics within the party system that precipitate MLAs taking internal concerns into the public domain. A deeper investigation of the internal dynamics of political parties by the press, however, might force political parties to reform their internal “democratic” systems, which would go a long way to renewing our democracy overall and make being a Caucus MLA less of a soul destroying enterprise.

For other interesting columns by Mr. Simpson, see www.bobsimpsonmla.ca .

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Note to News Editors: reproduction of John Twigg's items are welcome provided due credit is given and a notice is provided.

Van Dongen's jump shakes B.C. politics

The Daily Twigg  Vol. 1 No. 32  March 26, 2012

B.C. Politics Trendwatch

MLA Van Dongen shakes balance of power in B.C. politics
with shocking exit from Liberals to join B.C. Conservatives

By John Twigg

The lure of "a broadly based, credible free enterprise option in the next provincial election" and the alleged lack of accountability in Premier Christy Clark's B.C. Liberal Party government have caused 17-year Liberal MLA John van Dongen to suddenly join the upstart and until-now seatless B.C. Conservative Party.

"When more and more decisions are being made for the wrong reasons, then you have an organization that is heading for failure," an even-voiced van Dongen told the hushed Legislative Assembly on Monday afternoon in a personal statement right after Question Period, calmly and quietly sending an earthquake through the structures of B.C.'s partisan politics.

Van Dongen explained he has been concerned for more than a year about what he alleged were inconsistencies in what Clark told people about what her own role had been in the B.C. Rail sale when she was running for the party leadership, which she narrowly won one year ago this month, and about other concerns such as the $6-million settlement for Basi and Virk in the BCR scandal as well as certain other issues.

BC Place name deal was last straw

He said the last straw was the string of inconsistencies (i.e. changing reasons) from Clark's government regarding the cancelling of a $40-million deal with Telus Corp. regarding the naming rights on B.C. Place, which led van Dongen to approach B.C. Conservative Party leader John Cummins, who happily (and sensibly IMO) welcomed him even though Cummins and the party had previously stated that MLAs wanting to change parties should have to first run in a byelection (which IMO is naive, extremist and too rigid to allow for a situation like this in which the party changed more than the politician did, and a situation in which the new party's policy orientations are very similar to the jumping politician's orientations).

In other words, van Dongen is jumping from a big free-enterprise ship that is sinking to a small but growing free-enterprise ship that is rising quickly in opinion polls; it's not as if he is leaving an anti-development party to join a pro-development party or vice-versa. And while the B.C. Place naming controversy was the last straw, the core issue was Clark's weak leadership.

"Mr. van Dongen cited two core values by which he judges leadership – integrity and a genuine commitment to public service -- both of which are areas of concern with regards to the current leadership of the B.C. Liberal Government. As such, his only option is to align himself with a party that has the best potential to provide a broadly-based, credible, free-enterprise option in the next election," said a statement from the B.C. Conservative Party.

The seriousness of van Dongen's concerns was underlined by the revelation that he had hired a lawyer at his own expense to try to probe certain problems related to the B.C. Rail sale, and he further noted that the B.C. Auditor General has had to go to court to try to get documents related to the $6-million payout to former government aides David Basi and Bob Virk who pleaded guilty to wrongdoing in the B.C. Rail sale but still got their legal bills paid contrary to government policy and also got to keep their homes.

There are some arguments that could be used to justify that payout but they bring the integrity of the justice system into disrepute, namely that they took a gentle fall in order to end a complex and costly trial before it called in to testify such principals as Clark, former finance minister Gary Collins, former premier Gordon Campbell and several others - in other words the dubious plea bargain looked a lot like a blatant and too-convenient coverup of a dirty political scandal.

Van Dongen in an interview with CKNW's Jon McComb admitted he was aware of allegations published recently on some blogs but he insisted his actions were based solely on his own research. The most notable blog postings probably were Alex Tsakumis's recent suggestions that Clark herself may have leaked documents in the B.C. Rail scandal and that despite previous denials she in fact had been the subject of some RCMP investigations shortly before she resigned from then-premier Campbell's cabinet - plus revelations that her leadership campaign had connections to an Indo-Canadian gangster and that she may have lobbied India's consulate to get him a travel visa, and that she may have had questionable connections to a private-post secondary institution that was in the news.

But I would note that my own little blog for several weeks also had been focussing on Clark's failing leadership on those and numerous other issues such as putting misleading revenue projections in the provincial budget and using misleading employment statistics for political self-aggrandizement. To which I further add that while I would not knowingly repeat an unfounded libel, those statements have been posted by Tsakumis and gone unchallenged for several weeks or more now.

Departure could soon be followed by more

Meanwhile van Dongen's move by itself does not jeopardize Clark's majority in the House but it could be merely the beginning of more defections because several other Liberal backbenchers are said to be unhappy with Clark's style of government, notably Joan McIntyre of West Vancouver - Sea-to-Sky but possibly numerous others too, even some now in cabinet.

Cummins declined to confirm whether any more defections are in the works but he was obviously enthused about his party's prospects and said van Dongen's move was a sign of the times.

"People are abandoning the B.C. Liberals in droves," he said, claiming his party's membership numbers have been growing rapidly.

Clark meanwhile slightly enlarged her cabinet on Saturday by adding John Yap to replace the ousted Harry Bloy as Minister of State for Multiculturalism, medical doctor Moira Stilwell as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Health with a focus on health care innovation, and Rob Howard as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Transportation with a focus on air services agreements.

The timing and content of those cabinet tweaks were a bit unusual but could have been a bid to manufacture some news in time for the deadline of the Vancouver Province's Sunday edition in order to bolster the Liberal Party's hopes in the two byelections underway and/or to help stop the party's and the Premier's plunges in opinion polls. But in retrospect they may also have been to mitigate the impacts of van Dongen's anticipated move on Monday.

Clark was not available to any media today but was expected to be in Victoria tomorrow.

Van Dongen said he had tried but not been able to reach the Premier to personally advise her of his decision to leave caucus but he repeatedly assured the media that she was well aware of his on-going concerns.

Margin of power gets tighter for Clark

The standings in the Legislature are now 46 Liberals, 34 NDP, 2 Independents (Vicki Huntington and Bob Simpson), 1 Indep. (Conservative) (van Dongen) and 2 seats vacant (with byelections set for April 19 in Port Moody and Chilliwack)  - which with one seat for the Speaker means only four more defections from the Liberals would deprive Clark of her majority - assuming the New Democrats win the byelection in Port Moody and the Conservatives win in Chilliwack as now expected (though there is still lots of time for changes in B.C.'s ever-fluid politics).

The House sitting is scheduled to end on May 31, which means there could be time for the new MLAs to get into the House and participate in a vote of non-confidence in Clark's regime if that became appropriate.

NDP House Leader John Horgan seemed to welcome the move and suggested it was not entirely surprising given recent events but still was quite significant.

"It's a seismic shift in B.C. politics," Horgan told reporters, apparently signalling the NDP's recognition that B.C. politics now is truly a three-way contest.

Some eyebrows were raised about van Dongen's timing but he claimed it had nothing to do with the byelections and instead was driven mainly by the B.C. Place naming issue explanations, though it should be noted the Legislature is scheduled to sit only until Thursday and then recess for two weeks, which suggests there were some conveniences to doing it now rather than later.

Van Dongen's jump will help in byelection

Cummins clearly was happy with that too since it probably gives the Conservatives a lock on the Chilliwack riding because van Dongen - a longtime very successful dairy farmer and leader in the local Catholic church - is extraordinarily popular and well-respected in the upper Fraser Valley, winning his Abbotsford-South seat with 59% of the popular vote in 2009 even after he had been dumped from cabinet over speeding tickets and personally had gone through a marital breakdown and now is engaged to his constituency assistant.

"He's a man of great passion and integrity," gushed Cummins in one media comment though his quickly-issued news release cited his being a man of principle and integrity.

"I am delighted that he has joined BC's fastest growing party," said Cummins. "I am excited to work with John as we reach out to British Columbians and share our message of fiscal responsibility, ending the catch-and-release justice system, and reducing the influence of special interests in the political process. John's experience in the legislature will be invaluable in holding the government to account."

That passing reference to "special interests in the political process" could well have been a shot at renowned lobbyist Patrick Kinsella who apparently worked for three sides at once in the sale of B.C. Rail and who more recently was apparently the main architect of first getting Clark an open-line gig at CKNW and later co-piloting her leadership bid with prominent government lawyer Doug Eastwood, both of whom also worked for Vanoc during the 2010 Winter Olympics.

For his part van Dongen said he decided to join the B.C. Conservatives because they are a party devoted to integrity and are motivated by a genuine commitment to public service.

"I am energized to be part of a principled, honest and growing party that offers the people of B.C. a credible free-enterprise option in the next provincial election," he said, indicating that he intends to seek re-election as a Conservative in the next provincial election.

At a subsequent Conservative Party news conference in a hotel near the Legislature van Dongen also was armed with a legal opinion regarding the appropriateness of the payment arrangements for his longtime constituency assistant Sherri Wacker with whom he is now living in a committed relationship.

Government House Leader Rich Coleman, who dealt with the issue in Clark's absence, said he was a bit surprised because while van Dongen told his colleagues he would be leaving he had not told caucus that he also would be joining the Conservatives. Then Coleman made some comments suggesting that van Dongen, a longtime friend, may have been affected by personal issues that he had been struggling with since van Dongen lost his driver's licence. Van Dongen said such remarks were unfortunate but noted that his personal issues had been known for about four years and were not a problem in the community. He further claimed he is a bridge-builder who will not hold grudges, adding he was aware of the risk of such questions being raised but he decided to proceed anyway because the key issue is regarding the Premier's leadership.

Van Dongen's resignation text

Mr. Speaker, I rise and ask for the attention of the House to make a personal statement.
For almost 17 years I have risen in this chamber to represent the best interests of both my constituents, and the best interests of all British Columbians. I have done so as a member of the Official Opposition for 6 years, a Cabinet Minister for 8 years and as a private member for the last 3 years.
Throughout that time I have been keenly aware of both the privilege and responsibility that comes with being an elected member of this Assembly. I have always tried to conduct myself in a manner consistent with the expectations of those who entrusted me with this office. I am by no means a flawless individual, but have strived for personal and political integrity. I have always taken ownership of my own shortcomings.
Mr. Speaker, I had hoped that there would have been renewal in my party and in government. But, in the past 12 months, that has not happened. Indeed, every week constituents question government actions and issues that I am not able to defend.
What I believe people expect from political leadership are core values that include integrity and a genuine commitment to public service.
Integrity includes honesty, ethics and personal character. Integrity is non-negotiable. It is foundational for a strong organization. Most importantly, integrity includes accountability.
To this day, Mr. Speaker, there are still serious unanswered questions regarding the writing-off of 6 million dollars in legal fees in the BC Rail case contrary to government policy. Questions I have been asking for a year-and-a-half, and questions the Auditor General is seeking answers to through the courts.
Most recently, the unexplainable cancellation of a 35 million dollar naming rights agreement with Telus is another example of failed leadership.
There have been other lapses in proper accountability and I expect more to come. When more and more decisions are being made for the wrong reasons, then you have an organization that is heading for failure.
Today, Mr. Speaker, I rise because I can no longer carry on with my duties as a member of this government. I have decided to resign as a member of the BC Liberal Government Caucus and I am cancelling my membership with the BC Liberal Party.
I believe the people of B.C. deserve a government that will look in the mirror and honestly contemplate what it sees, a government that people have trust and confidence in, a government that models true accountability for its actions.
To my colleagues in the government caucus as well as those in opposition and those who sit as independent MLAs, I celebrate each of you and your willingness to serve the people of British Columbia. This is not an easy job, so to all of you who continue to strive for excellence, I applaud your efforts.
To my constituents, in the coming days and weeks I look forward to speaking with you and further discussing the decision I have made. Indeed, I do have much to share and will in the coming weeks make it clear that while this was not an easy decision, it was the only decision I could arrive at in good conscience.
To the government caucus staff, constituency assistants and party staff, it has been a privilege to work with you. And to all those public servants who I have had the honour of working with, rest assured that my work with you to accomplish the goals and policies that were right for all British Columbians have been one of the most meaningful aspects of my time in public office.
To my family and friends, thank you for standing by me through some difficult times. In particular I wish to thank Sherry and Lucas for their continued love and support.
In closing, Mr. Speaker, looking forward, I will do what I have done for the past 17 years. I will put my time, energy and talents to serve my constituents and the party that I believe can best provide British Columbians with a broadly based, credible free enterprise option in the next provincial election. Therefore, I am pleased to announce that I will now be sitting in this House as a member of the B.C. Conservative Party.


Van Dongen biography

John van Dongen, one of the longest serving MLAs in the B.C. Legislature, has represented Abbotsford voters since 1995.
He was re-elected in 1996, 2001, 2005 and began representing the new riding of Abbotsford-South in the spring of 2009.
During that time he has held a variety of posts, including Solicitor General and Minister of Public Safety, Minister of State for Intergovernmental Relations and Minister of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries.
John has called Abbotsford home for more than 30 years, and before his election to the Legislative Assembly operated his own successful dairy farm.
He was actively involved in farm organizations and business for 20 years, serving as the Vice-President of the Board of Directors of Dairyland and as a board member of Agrifoods International Co-operative (Dairyland), BC Dairy Foundation, BC Federation of Dairyman’s Association and the Federal Farm Debt Review Board.
John, the oldest of seven children, was born in Canada after his parents emigrated from Holland. He is father to two adult sons and has two grandchildren. He and his partner Sherri enjoy travelling, the outdoors and community involvement.
John holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of British Columbia.
Since he was first elected as MLA in Abbotsford, John quickly earned recognition and respect for his tireless dedication to his constituency, advocating passionately for the people he serves.
John believes British Columbians deserve a government that embraces integrity, works diligently and manages taxpayers’ money effectively.

Federal NDP leadership contest analysis

The Daily Twigg  Vol. 1 No. 31  March 23, 2012

Federal NDP leadership contest displays
debate between jobs or social priorities

By John Twigg

The federal New Democratic Party leadership convention on today and tomorrow in Toronto, and being carried live on CPAC and in large part on CBC Newsworld, is more interesting than usual because the outcome is not a foregone conclusion, and because the outcome will have significant impacts on future directions of Canadian politics as well as on politics here in B.C.

Seven candidates are seeking votes from 132,000 NDP members, only 4,620 of whom are at the convention, and the bulk of whom will be voting live online, though tens of thousands have voted in advance online or by mail using preferential ballots.

That is a fairly democratic process, in keeping with the party's name, but the contest has been a bit of a bloody battle behind the scenes, some of which has spilled out in public too as leadership rivals have stooped to denigrating certain opponents, mainly old-boy warhorses taking cheap shots at perceived front-runner Thomas Mulcair, a Quebec-based MP, because he has dared to suggest the "new" democratic party needs to move in some new policy directions in order to win the next election.

Indeed that debate about which directions the party should move in - i.e. towards the centre or towards pragmatism or farther to the left - is the crux of the contest - and the crux of the challenges facing the B.C. New Democrats too as they prepare a platform for the 2013 provincial election.

"I'm from the New Democratic wing of the NDP," said early front-runner Brian Topp, which seemed to be a defining line in the contest and perhaps a turning point against him too because the sarcasm was seen as inappropriate inside what should be a family, a point touched on briefly by surging B.C.-based candidate Nathan Cullen in his showcase closing speech this morning.

"I'm a proud New Democrat and an unapologetic social democrat too," Topp said in his final speech, claiming that to make a win in the next election worthwhile the party must campaign on clear policies such as a progressive tax system and shutting down coal-fired power plants, adding in french that the party must stay true to its values.

"In order to defeat our enemies we shouldn't have to become like them," is a theme Topp and others often used to slam Mulcair and Cullen for advocating crafting new policies to reach out to liberal Liberals in Mulcair's case, or even crafting electoral arrangements such as running joint candidates with Liberals and Greens against Conservatives in Cullen's case, though almost all of the candidates in one way or another favour reaching out to people who haven't voted NDP before or who simply haven't voted, as candidate Paul Dewar put it in his closing speech.

That maturity reflects the emerging perception that the New Democrats are on the verge of becoming the next government in waiting following their surprising breakthrough into Official Opposition status in the last federal election, aided largely by the stunning orange-wave breakthrough in Quebec achieved by recently-deceased leader Jack Layton and then lone Quebec MP Mulcair. The NDP emerged with 103 seats, a gain of 66, of which 59 were in Quebec. The Conservatives have 166 seats, Liberals 34, Bloc Quebecois 4, and Green 1, which means the NDP is still far from taking power.

More recently the NDP won the byelection in Toronto-Danforth (Layton's former seat) with about 60% of the vote, and an opinion poll had the New Democrats tied with the Conservatives in national popular vote, so what seemed unthinkable only a few years ago - an NDP national government - is now at least in sight, which helps explain why so many candidates were trying so hard to win the leadership, and why the party membership has soared (also aided by the B.C. NDP's leadership contest last year which helped boost B.C. NDP membership to about 38,000 - the largest provincial bloc in the party).

Topp was the early leader, quickly releasing a long list of endorsements headed by former leader Ed Broadbent, former Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow and longtime B.C. MP Libby Davies, but Topp was seen to have given a poor performance at the B.C. NDP convention in Vancouver last year and since then he has struggled to regain momentum. Initially he was not a dynamic speaker or strong debater and his lack of a seat in Parliament raised doubts about whether he could adequately combat Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Topp's campaign suffered a serious setback in the last week when a somewhat senile-looking Broadbent, apparently responding to backroom polling information, went public with a flameout against Mulcair, warning of such things as Mulcair's supposedly dangerous temper tantrums - a blunder that Topp so far has not rectified, though he did try to mitigate it in his closing speech by opening with praise for his opponents' campaigns.

That's a problem because such acrimony could make it difficult for whoever wins the contest to quickly build a united team afterwards, and it probably further helped Mulcair when he reacted with restraint and dignity and stuck to his messaging that the federal New Democrats need to develop a coherent and pragmatic economic program that could enable them to win the next federal election.

While opponents such as Topp tried to portray Mulcair as not socialist enough, his program is still clearly progressive such as by addressing climate change in a way that would work in the real world too, such as adopting a cap-and-trade system, and linking tax incentives for business to job creation. He has said the gist of his campaign is "sustainability, prosperity and economic justice."

Mulcair, a very intelligent and fluently bilingual former Quebec Liberal cabinet minister (in the environment portfolio), resonates well when he argues the NDP needs to take care to keep and even enlarge its breakthrough wins in Quebec but also to reach out to other new areas of support such as the 65 per cent of young people who simply do not vote now, and to voters in the Prairies who have more or less abandoned the party in what used to be its stronghold area.

Mulcair also has by far the largest number of MPs supporting him - 43 to Topp's 13 - and he has some other notable supporters too, such as B.C. MLAs Mike Farnworth, Jenny Kwan and Rob Fleming, former B.C. premier Mike Harcourt and longtime Saskatchewan MP Lorne Nystrom who are arguably more populist than doctrinaire, as well as quite a few trade union members reflecting Mulcair's roots there.

Rather than move the party to the left or to the centre, Mulcair talks of modernizing it, which seems to embrace both a policy shift towards populism and a psychological shift inside the party in which the head office and hard-left old-guard would no longer hold so much sway over constituencies and regions, such as when the national campaign argued for a national daycare program even though Quebec already had such a plan, which Mulcair addressed by dropping that plank from the Quebec campaign.

Though it's a point most people might miss, Mulcair's use of the term "economic justice" instead of "social justice" is a sort of code or sign that he will not be campaigning first and foremost for such things as women's rights or LGBTQ issues and instead would be focussing more on such things as job creation and tax reform.

"The number one issue is jobs," a video for Mulcair said and he was about the only main candidate to say so directly though Topp mentioned "using resources for jobs in a Canada that is much more economically and socially equal."

So perhaps the choice for New Democrats comes down to whether the leader should be someone who will appeal to populist priorities such as job creation or someone who will appeal to traditional party priorities such as gender and sexual orientation issues.

It's not that Mulcair or anyone else is opposed to gender equity and human rights for homosexuals, it is a question of what policies the party should emphasize in its campaign content if it wants to win the next election and thereby really make some real differences in Canadian life.

The answer to that dilemma may be determined overnight if the first ballot voting determines a winner, which will be announced early tomorrow morning around 6:30 a.m. B.C. time, but more likely it will be determined by a second or third or even fourth ballot, in which case B.C.'s Nathan Cullen, who appears to be in third place, probably could determine the outcome by signalling a choice for one or the other.

A wild card has also appeared in the form of Broadbent telling a CBC-TV panel interview this afternoon that he stands by his earlier statements that Mulcair's leadership talents are in doubt, especially after claiming that Mulcair's convention speech "bombed" because he read it and seemed to run out of time, but that was rebutted by former leader Alexa McDonough on the same panel and then Nystrom later noted that Broadbent's earlier criticisms had backfired against Topp and his reiterated remarks could do so again.

Those feuds seemed to epitomize remarks a few days ago by former prominent New Democrat Stephen Lewis who said such comments from party warhorses troubled him and he feels it is time for the party to make a generational change, meaning that guys like Broadbent should let go. Though Mulcair at 57 is not a young man, he does represent a new direction from new blood.

Which side will win? That will be interesting to see, and then it will be further interesting to see if or how that influences the B.C. NDP platform too.


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New poll sees big win for B.C. NDP

The Daily Twigg  Vol. 1 No. 30  March 21, 2012

NDP likely to get huge win in next B.C. election
according to latest poll from Forum Research

By John Twigg

In politics as in baseball you can never say the game is over until it is over but based on the latest Forum Research opinion poll of B.C. voting intentions you couldn't blame the New Democrats if they told an apparatchik to book a fat lady to sing the final refrains of this political soap opera.

The next provincial election won't happen until May 14, 2013, and before that those two pending byelections will take place on April 19 this year, but it is now obvious from the latest Forum poll results and from other recent polls that the B.C. New Democrats have built up such a large lead that it would take some kind of political earthquake to stop them from winning a comfortable majority or maybe even a huge majority.

In a survey reportedly done Monday this week, the NDP emerged with an astounding 47% support, which compares with 44% in the Ipsos-Reid poll in February, 42% in the Angus Reid poll in February and 39% in a Forum poll in January.

If that pattern held until voting day it would produce 75 seats for the New Democrats and only 10 seats for others, according to Forum president Lorne Bozinoff in a release posted on Forum's website.

The political implications of that are massive because the New Democrats under Premier Adrian Dix would have such a huge majority that it would be a mandate for them to do virtually anything and everything they wished, virtually unchecked except by the news media and public opinion.

That is even moreso the case when one considers that the other two main alternative parties, the B.C. Liberals and B.C. Conservatives, both came in at 21%, which means the Liberal support continues to plunge sharply while the Tory support seems to have solidified and perhaps hit a ceiling, but Bozinoff claimed that the Liberals would emerge with 9 seats, the Conservatives with 0 seats and Independent MLA Vicki Huntington would be re-elected in Delta for 1 seat.

Bozinoff further noted that the Liberal supporters are preponderately male, the Conservative supporters tend to be older and residents of the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island (which reflects the Conservatives' recent recruitment of ex-Liberal Rick Peterson in Vancouver-Quilchena) and the Green Party supporters tend to be young, but left unsaid was that the New Democrats enjoy the support of a large and growing preponderance of women and close to a majority of men too.

"The B.C. provincial NDP have gone from strength to strength since December, and, with these seat projections they run the risk of dominating the province the way the Liberals did in New Brunswick in the 1980s," Bozinoff said in a statement, adding that while the teachers’ dispute has been very divisive it is currently playing in the NDP’s favour.

My analysis is that the final election result will not be so lopsided, especially after the voters remember the downside debacles that ensued from former Liberal premier Gordon Campbell's crazy 77 seats to 2 seats win in 2001, which enabled what became arguably the most corrupt and damaging regime in the history of the province, or at least certainly the most controversial.

I also doubt that the Conservatives will be shut out because they have been attracting some credible candidates, but the Liberals - known by some in the blogosphere as the Lieberals - could well be shut out, especially if current Premier Christy Clark continues in her combative and overly-partisan ways (such as clinging to the leadership and continuing to deny she used dirty tricks and questionable tactics to win the party leadership in 2011 as revealed by blogger Alex Tsakumis, and refusing to allow inquiries into obvious cases of wrongdoing such as events brhind the sale of BC Rail). 

Indeed next month's byelections in Port Moody - Coquitlam and Chilliwack - Hope could radically change that outlook too because it sounds and appears as if the New Democrats will win easily with popular ex-mayor Joe Trasolini in Port Moody and the Conservatives probably will win narrowly with popular academic/columnist John Martin in Chilliwack but furthermore it's quite possible that the remarkably unpopular Liberals could finish third in both races, which if so could send the dogs of doom howling for Christy Clark's immediate ouster.

Clark's approval plunges to 26%

The Forum poll had new information in that regard too, because Clark's favorability rating has fallen in three consecutive polls, from a weak 34% in January to a weaker 31% in February to now an abysmal 26% in March; the poll apparently was of a usual size and with usual variances (aka margins of error) though those details were not immediately available.

Dix meanwhile had an approval of 39%, supposedly down 4 points from February, but that could be a statistical variation because the trend for both him and his party is clearly upward.

B.C. Conservative Party leader John Cummins had a favorability of only 23%, more or less unchanged from previous months and still reflecting that he is an unknown quantity to most voters.

Some questions on education and the job action by public-sector teachers suggest that current education issues may have influenced party support trends too because 52% of respondents disapproved of the Clark regime's heavy-handed Bill 22, the misnamed Education Improvement Act, and only 35% supported it. Even 20% of Liberal supporters and 31% of Conservative supporters disapproved of Bill 22, while 80% of New Democrats disapproved of it.

A question about support for teachers was less edifying, with the teachers earning 45% support but the B.C. Teachers Federation being supported by only 16%; and 50% of respondents disapproved of further job action by teachers.

That little paradigm provides a glimmer of hope for the Clark Liberals because it raises the possibility that they could regain some support if the radical minority of teachers now in control of the BCTF following its recent convention in Vancouver would become able to trigger a wildcat or illegal province-wide strike during preparations for final exams that would so anger voters that they would want punish the pro-teacher NDP too, which seemed to be Clark's strategy from the outset (or more likely a strategy cooked up by her increasingly-desperate backroom advisers which they persuaded her to try, namely to provoke the teachers into actions that would fuel a voter backlash against the NDP).

The timing of that could be important too because if the BCTF does decide to try to take some job action in defiance of Bill 22's draconian penalties they would do so in a vote tentatively scheduled for April 18 and 19, which means the results would not be known until after the byelections.

Another interesting quirk is that the Good Friday and Easter Monday statutory holidays mean the B.C. Legislature will be taking a two-week break in the middle of the byelection, leaving only four sitting days in the first week of the campaign and only four sitting days in the last week, which will tend to shield Clark from questions from the NDP about the many policy areas her regime is mismanaging (e.g. possible technical problems with the so-called smart meters, unanswered questions behind the resignation of Harry Bloy as minister for multiculturalism, etc.) as well as about problems specific to Port Moody and Chilliwack.

Anyway, this latest poll result from Forum Research adds fuel to what appears to be a slowly-building movement to oust Clark before she can do any more damage to the province, and before it becomes impossible for someone such as Finance Minister Kevin Falcon to reverse the flow of Liberal supporters to the Cummins Conservatives and possibly save the B.C. Liberals from being completely wiped out.

As for whether those nasty personal attack ads against Dix have had any affect, they may have slightly trimmed his personal approval rating but meanwhile the support for the NDP as a party still appears to be soaring towards record levels.

For the NDP to lose such a lead would require them to make some really serious blunders of their own but so far there is no evidence they might do so.

Clark in the Legislature has been hectoring the New Democrats to release the provisional platform and budget they had quickly prepared last year in case Clark called a snap election in the Fall but NDP finance critic Bruce Ralston as well as Dix have recently given plausible explanations why that would not be appropriate now, mainly because financial and economic circumstances have changed.

But so too, it seems, have political circumstances changed; not merely a sea change but a radical turnabout.

Does the phrase "Premier Adrian Dix" ring a bell or sound discordant? That may depend on the partisan orientations of the listeners but in any case it now seems everyone will soon have to get used to it.

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